I'll Support DeSantis if He Wins Iowa, Otherwise It's Haley
Why I Want Ron DeSantis To Win
It's no secret that I'm wanting the MOST conservative candidate to win this race. Mike Pence was originally that candidate, but the sterile and boring Mike Pence seen on the campaign trail was never going to be electable. With a huge chunk of the GOP voter base hating on him for upholding the Constitution on January 6th, Mike Pence decided to run like the heir apparent; which made no sense at all. I wasn't going to support Mike Pence until he proved he could campaign. He never did and dropped out.
Of the four candidates left as of this writing (DeSantis, Haley, Christie, and Ramaswamy); DeSantis is the most conservative. When Governor DeSantis led the Florida GOP to destroy the Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections as Trump's candidates caused enormous and humiliating defeats across the rest of the country; DeSantis' victory speech felt insanely egotistical and self-serving, seemingly using the words "I" and "my" way too much more often than "we" and "our".
In fact, Ron DeSantis seems like an opportunist all around, and that's largely why I didn't endorse him earlier in this race. However opportunist he may be, I have no doubt that DeSantis is ultimately a conservative first and an opportunist second. Perhaps not ideal when picking a role model for our children, but when our only alternative is Donald Trump, DeSantis seems pretty darn humble. Ultimately, with Pence out of the race, I think that's why Bob Vander Plaats ended up endorsing DeSantis and that endorsement does carry quite a bit of weight with me.
Of course, DeSantis is not our only alternative to Trump.
Why Not Nikki Haley (or the others)?
Let's face it. Chris Christie is only running this race to troll Donald Trump. With Christie on the verge of failing to meet the requirements for the next debate, his campaign was a "no shot" that's been on life support since he got in the race. Likewise, Mike Pence might have repeatedly and foolishly said Vivek Ramaswamy was too young, but he's really just is insanely obnoxious; and his campaign is also on the verge of death with him joining Christie in the club of candidates that are about to not make the Iowa GOP debate. This leaves only former Secretary of State and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
From my perspective, Nikki Haley's biggest detraction is her soft support for the pro-life cause. With Justice Clarence Thomas ready to get off the bench, we NEED a President who will put a pro-life judge on the Supreme Court to prevent us from losing the ground we gained on the court under the Trump administration. If Bob Vander Plaats confidently thought she was that candidate, I think she would have earned his endorsement and shored up her status as the best candidate to beat Trump in the primaries.
Instead, Haley is more worried about winning the general election and, as we have seen, the pro-life message is dragging Republicans down since the Supreme Court decision to reverse Roe v Wade in June of 2022, beginning with the first defeat of a pro-life ballot initiative in Kansas. This is really disappointing because a strong pro-life woman running as the Republican nominee after the reversal of Roe could potentially change minds, especially with as gifted Haley is as campaigner and communicator.
Why I'm Not Supporting DeSantis... yet.
I need to see that Ron DeSantis can beat Donald Trump in Iowa. If he fails, even after winning the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, Ron DeSantis is dead in the water. After that point, I'm supporting Haley.
Now that Donald Trump has flip flopped on abortion and is now sounding pro-choice given the unpopularity of his old position in the elections over the past year and a half, I think it's safe to say that Haley is at least a pro-life as Trump, if not significantly more so. If DeSantis loses Iowa, I'll be supporting Haley the rest of the way through until either her or Donald Trump wins the GOP primary.
If Ron DeSantis can't win Iowa, he won't win anything. I just hope he has the sense to recognize that and drop out if he finishes anything other than first in Iowa so the GOP faithful can start rallying around Nikki Haley.
For whatever it's worth, Nikki Haley needs to win either New Hampshire or South Carolina to put a dent in Trump's magic armor and rally those volunteers, activists, and donors to her cause. If she can't do that, Donald Trump will unfortunately be the Republican nominee for the third time.