Not Pro-Life Enough

Since the first GOP debate of the 2024 cycle, Nikki Haley's star has been slowly rising as Trump and DeSantis both fall in the polls. There's just one problem: she's only moderately pro-life and certainly not enough to win the support of Bob Vander Plaats and the enormous and powerful block of evangelical Christians he has influence over like none other.

Nikki Haley's position is that she's pro-life, but that it's an issue that should be left to the states. In other words, she's only a step or two in the right direction from Joe Biden, who touts his Catholic faith and his pro-life attitude but doesn't want to impose on anyone. In Nikki Haley's universe, it's okay if New York and California allow partial birth abortions and don't provide health services for the babies that miraculously survive an abortion. "It's a state thing" is code for "I prefer not to talk about this" or "I think abortion is a losing issue."

Someone needs to ask Nikki Haley if, as President with a Democrat-led Congress, she would veto a spending bill that provided funding to Planned Parenthood. Because, while I'm sure she would say, "I don't want to fund Planned Parenthood," I'm not so sure she would be willing to fight that battle.

Someone needs to ask Nikki Haley if she will appoint pro-life judges to the Federal courts and pro-life Justices to the Supreme Court. If she answers like George W. Bush by saying she won't have a litmus test, it means we're risking everything we gained when the conservative majority in the Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade. The next Republican President is likely to pick the replacement for Clarance Thomas, and conservatives cannot afford to replace a philosophical heavyweight like him on the Supreme Court with a John Roberts.

Honestly, while Nikki Haley's stance on the life issue is frustratingly weak, I still think she would make a remarkable President and would be the most electable in the general election. She has the foreign policy chops I want to see in a strong global leader. She's polite; which I never thought I would appreciate before this country has had to endure eight years of Trumpism. Unfortunately, she just can't win the primary without being more of a pro-life warrior.

Bob Vander Plaats

I mentioned Bob Vander Plaats in another article about why Mike Pence is in a good position, despite his bad position in the polls at the moment. Bob Vander Plaats has been the King Maker in the last three Iowa Caucuses. He supported Huckabee, and Huckabee won. He supported Santorum, and Santorum won. He supported Cruz, and Cruz won. Just as importantly, Bob Vander Plaats does NOT like Donald Trump. Unlike most evangelical Christians who sold their souls to (or revealed their true colors by jumping on) the Trump bandwagon, Bob Vander Plaats does seem to be the real deal.

However, Bob Vander Plaats is not the all powerful Wizard of Iowa. In 2002, he ran for Governor and lost the primary. In 2006, he ran for Governor, and dropped out to be the Lt. Governor candidate, and lost the general. In 2010, seemingly unstoppable after his run with Mike Huckabee who was outrageously popular ta this point, he ran again, and lost the primary (in hindsight, I wonder if Bob Vander Plaats losing in 2010 was why Huckabee didn't run in 2012). While he may not be able to carry the majority of Iowa Republicans, he can offer 20 to 25% of the vote on Caucus night. In an eight way Primary (or Caucus), 20 to 25% is a REALLY big deal.

Now, Bob Vander Plaats likes picking winners, but he's still the real deal. In his head, he's doing the math.

According to Real Clear Politics as of the morning of September 2023 in the year of our Lord 2,023, Donald Trump is averaging about 45.5% in the most recent polls. Ron DeSantis is struggling at 14.8% and Nikki Haley is at 9%.

In recent weeks, Trump has been on a steady climb at the cost of Ron Desantis' slow fall in the polls. Likewise, Nikki Haley's rise seems to correspond directly with a slight fall in the polls for Senator Tim Scott, who is at 7%. 20+14.8 is less than 45.5. Granted, Bob Vander Plaats' endorsement my take some votes away from Trump, but some of his block will already be in his selected candidate's camp, too. Ultimately, even in a best case scenario, candidates need to drop out and support his candidate, or Caucus goers need to be convince to support another candidate to prevent Trump from winning the state.

Nikki Haley is probably the most impactful candidate for Bob Vander Plaats to support, since her more moderate take on social issues means there will be less overlap with Bob Vander Plaats' coalition of social conservatives. The problem is that I don't think they'd rally behind her like they did Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in years past, and Bob Vander Plaats wouldn't want to sell out or lose credibility with his base.

Why Is Iowa So Darn Important

If ANYONE manages to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucuses, donors and primary voters across the country are going to rally around them. When that happens, the other candidates not trying to leach off of Trump's bandwagon in the event he dies or goes to prison will face enormous pressure to drop out from their donors.

If Nikki Haley doesn't win Bob Vander Plaats' support and either beat Trump or at least come up with a dominant second place finish, then either she's going to face calls to drop out in favor of someone else, or the field will be too divided to stop the Trump Train.

To stop Trump, the Republican Party really needs a unity candidate coming out of Iowa.

New Hampshire or Nevada: Surviving an Iowa Loss

After the Iowa Caucuses are the Presidential Primaries in New Hampshire and Nevada. I actually think Nikki Haley would do MUCH better to focus her activities in these two states. There's less competition and no Bob Vander Plaats who will likely be working against her. If Trump wins Iowa, Nikki Haley could rally everyone behind her by winning New Hampshire, where Trump may not even be on the ballot, and Nevada. The problem is that if Trump gets even one win, people are going to want to rally towards him out of fear.

Plus, it's almost October and Nikki Haley hasn't been spending enough resources in these states to have a functional ground game without the momentum from an Iowa win. To be honest, as soon as it became known that Nikki Haley wasn't as pro-life as the other candidates; who support a federal abortion ban; her campaign team should have immediately shifted the focus of the entire campaign to New Hampshire and Nevada. If she does it now, they're going to look extremely weak; and she absolutely will be called out for it.

South Carolina Isn't A Lock

The next chance Nikki Haley will have to win a state will be South Carolina; which will be the fourth contest. However, Nikki Haley faces another problem in South Carolina: Tim Scott, the sitting US Senator who is also running for President. When Nikki Haley left the Governor's mansion to become the gunslinging Secretary of State under Donald Trump in 2016, her political machine was largely divided up among the powers that be filling the power vacuum. One of those was Tim Scott. As I mentioned in a previous post, most political activists have dreams of their own and they are very calculating. If they support Tim Scott and Tim Scott does not become the President, then they're going to have a relationship with a sitting US Senator with a long career ahead of him. That's not a bad consolation prize. If you support Nikki Haley and Nikki Haley does not become the President, well, you have a mom that might come out and say some nice words for you when you run for Congress some day.

There's also the risk of Tim Scott and Nikki Haley splitting the vote if neither drops out of the South Carolina primary. This happened in 2008 when Fred Thompson (out of spite) stayed in the race through South Carolina just to splitting the conservative vote with Mike Huckabee, delivering the state to John McCain and ending the last real shot Mike Huckabee had of winning the primary.

If only Nikki Haley or Tim Scott is in the race by the time the show comes to South Carolina, there's a decent chance they might actually win South Carolina assuming that whoever is still in the race was competitive in their previous losses. However, by the time we get to primary night in South Carolina, a win in the state will be too little, too late. The momentum of winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada is going to carry Donald Trump to the nomination at that point. If both Haley and Scott are still in the race in February, there's going to be a Civil War in South Carolina.

The Path is Narrow, and it goes through Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa

Realistically, everybody with a chance has doubled down on Iowa because that's where you have to stop Trump's momentum before it can start building steam, because it's going to accelerate extremely fast once it gets going.