Bob Vander Plaats Joins Team DeSantis

We here at KTracy.com have been anxiously awaiting word of Bob Vander Plaats' endorsement for the 2024 GOP Primary. Earlier this month, Kim Reynolds, the wildly popular Governor of Iowa, endorsed Ron DeSantis. This was a sign that Bob Vander Plaats was probably going to follow suit and word finally came yesterday that the crucial endorsement landed for Ron DeSantis.

For those of you who don't know who Bob Vander Plaats is, he's an insanely influential evangelical leader in the state who commands a ton of loyalty from a large group of supporters. Those supporters gave Mike Huckabee a surprise landslide victory in the state over Mitt Romney in 2008. In 2012, they gave a shock victory to Rick Santorum who came from nowhere in the polls thanks to a last minute Bob Vander Plaats endorsement. Likewise, a late endorsement from Bob Vander Plaats also resulted in his supporters rallying to Ted Cruz and giving him a squeaker of a victory in 2016 over Marco Rubio and Donald Trump.

What's significant about this endorsement in the 2024 race is that Bob Vander Plaats is doing it early. He knows how important it is for Christian conservatives to defeat Donald Trump and regain some semblance of credibility after his boorish behavior in the name of Christ and the plethora of sex scandals that continue to emerge from his entourage. This is intentional and well thought out. With the endorsements from Governor Kim Reynolds and Bob Vander Plaats, the Caucuses are merely a formality. This then should free DeSantis to begin campaigning in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the Super Tuesday states instead of focusing so heavily on Iowa.

Game Over for the Other Trump Challengers

This is Probably Why Mike Pence and Tim Scott Dropped Out

I love Mike Pence. Pence is undoubtedly the most conservative and intellectual conservative running for President in 2024. If I had my way, Mike Pence would be the GOP candidate for 2024. However, being in politics has unexplainably given Pence the personality of an empty toilet paper roll and his campaign has been bogged down by poor talking points and an agenda that often flew over the heads of most Americans.

I was admittedly surprised when I learned Mike Pence dropped out when he did, but Pence and Tim Scott are true patriots for doing so. As we wrote back in August, Mike Pence had one path to the Presidency. Mike Pence had to be the most pro-life, most conservative candidate in the field in order to court the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats. If Pence could win that endorsement, he would likely win Iowa. If Pence could win Iowa, the field would clear out a bit and the anti-Trump vote would consolidate around him in New Hampshire and across the country. Tim Scott's path was very similar, despite his less organized campaign.

With the endorsements of Kim Reynolds and Bob Vander Plaats belonging to Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence's path to the Presidency was closed and he knew it as soon as Bob Vander Plaats told him it wasn't him. Pence will not win Iowa. Pence is too socially conservative to win a New Hampshire primary. Even if national support doesn't consolidate around Ron DeSantis, Nevada is going to go to Trump and Nikki Haley would win South Carolina without Tim Scott in the race.

Nikki Haley Has Been Wasting Time in Iowa

If Reynolds and Bob Vander Plaats did not endorse Ron DeSantis, they would have been tempted by the prospect of Nikki Haley. There's just one problem. Nikki Haley is not pro-life enough to win their support. Additionally, when she was running for Governor in 2010, Nikki Haley was at the center of a sex scandal involving a popular political blogger in the state. However, it was Haley's weak stance against abortion that sank her chance of winning the endorsements of Iowa's most influential conservatives.

The Iowa Caucuses will be held January 15th. Nikki Haley will lose that contest. She now has to decide whether to move her campaign to New Hampshire for the January 23rd Primary, or risk waiting until South Carolina's February 24th primary without a single convention delegate to her name. She could go to Nevada; which has caucuses on February 8th, but the state rules heavily favor President Trump. Losing South Carolina would not only end Haley's presidential campaign, it might even end her political career.

Nikki Haley has another problem. The Never Trump crowd are not going to back Nikki Haley for long without winning Iowa or New Hampshire. If Tim Scott was still in the race or if South Carolina wasn't relatively early on the primary calendar, she would be in the same position as Mike Pence.

Vivek Ramaswamy Also Has No Path Forward

Vivek Ramaswamy is essentially a younger, smoother talking version of Donald Trump. Vivek Ramaswamy's path to victory required Trump to be removed from the ballot due to criminal convictions or the insurrection argument; which does still have teeth and might actually happen. Unfortunately, Vivek Ramaswamy's path also requires Ron DeSantis not to be the consensus candidate. Ron DeSantis is not as much of a Trump impersonator as Vivek Ramaswamy, but the former President and the Florida governor are similar enough that a large enough group of Trump supporters could rally around DeSantis without feeling like they were selling out.

Honestly, I don't think much of Vivek Ramaswamy and didn't think he had much of a shot at winning the nomination anyway.

Chris Christie's Intentions Will Become Clear Soon

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie has dedicated his 2024 Presidential Campaign to ruining the reputation of Donald Trump among Republicans. I suspect he does not actually care about running for President, he's only running for President so he can generate more buzz with his vicious attacks against Donald Trump.

If the GOP consolidates around Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie will be left with a choice. He can either:

1. Endorse Governor DeSantis as the best candidate to defeat Trump, or
2. Refuse to drop out because DeSantis is too similar to Trump

Obviously, the latter will guarantee that Donald Trump would become President, so the only reason for Chris Christie to stay in would be because his ego is actually bigger than he is.

To his credit, Chris Christie has actually repaired a lot of the damage to his reputation caused by the last few years on ABC news, hugging Obama, and his extremely moderate 2016 Presidential Campaign. He deserves some credit for that.

In Conclusion: This is a 3-Way Race between Trump, DeSantis, and Haley

The Bob Vander Plaats endorsement has likely solidified Ron DeSantis as the Trump alternative in 2016. If it was not for Trump desparaging him throughout the campaign, Ron DeSantis would have actually made a really fantastic unity candidate between the MAGA Heads and Never Trumpers. Donald Trump's ego was never about to let that happen, however.

The last candidate to pose a threat to Ron DeSantis' campaign to unify the anti-Trump vote is Nikki Haley. Nikki Haley is in a really bad position having essentially wasted millions of dollars and thousands of dollars in Iowa. Nikki Haley's only chance was that Bob Vander Plaats would choose to endorse a candidate that was only nominally pro-life but had the greatest chance to beat Trump and win the general election. Bob Vander Plaats has picked the winner of the last three Iowa Caucuses (Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz). However, he has never picked a Republican Nominee and thus has never picked a President. Nikki Haley was likely hoping he would care more about his legacy than his ethics. That wasn't going to happen. Bob Vander Plaats is the real deal. Now, all that's holding Nikki Haley up is her are her donors and remarkable poll numbers. We'll see if that's enough to win New Hampshire.