The Shocking Wisconsin Supreme Court Loss

Just a few months ago, in November 2024, President Donald Trump carried Wisconsin by a razor-thin but decisive margin of 0.9%, securing a record-breaking 1.7 million votes: the most ever for a Republican in the state. It was a triumph that had us conservatives cheering, proof that the Badger State was still Trump country despite a narrow loss to Biden in 2020. The energy in Wisconsin was electric, with early voting surging thanks to a multi-million-dollar push from allies like Elon Musk, and rural voters turning out in droves to cement the GOP's hold. So how, in the name of all that's good and holy in this world, did we just lose the Wisconsin Supreme Court race on April 1, 2025 to liberal Susan Crawford over our guy, Brad Schimel? It's a gut punch that's left us scratching our heads and fuming.

The numbers don't lie, and they're ugly. Despite Trump's endorsement and Musk dropping a jaw-dropping $19 million into the race, Schimel couldn't pull it off, losing a seat that would've flipped the court to a conservative majority and let us fix the piss-poor districting progressives have done in the state. Turnout was high, potentially a record 43%, but it seems the liberals out-hustled us, riding a wave of early voting and urban turnout in places like Milwaukee and Dane County, while our rural base didn't show up with the same fire they had in November to vote for Trump. Crawford's campaign hammered abortion and union rights, issues that apparently still rile up the left more than we anticipated, and Schimel's Trump ties might've turned off some of the squishy moderates who are concerned about tariffs we needed. This isn't just a loss; it's a warning siren blaring that Trump's coattails aren't long enough.

What's maddening is that Republicans had every advantage, or so it seemed. Schimel had the Trump brand, a proven conservative record as Attorney General, and a boatload of cash from Musk's PACs, yet we still got steamrolled by a Dane County judge backed by George Soros and Barack Obama. It's not that Trump is unpopular; his November win proves he's still got the magic; but this race shows that his popularity doesn't automatically trickle down to every Republican on the ballot. We can't just slap a Trump sticker on a candidate and call it a day; we've got to fight harder, smarter, and figure out why our voters stayed home while the left's didn't. This is a wake-up call, folks, and we'd better answer it before the 2025 Virginia Elections.

Florida's Congressional Wins: A Hollow Victory?

Over in Florida, we managed to hold onto two congressional seats in the special elections for Districts 1 and 6, with Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine pulling out wins on April 1, 2025. On the surface, it's a relief: Trump-endorsed candidates in ruby-red districts keeping the GOP's slim House majority intact. Patronis took over for Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle, and Fine replaced Mike Waltz in a district Trump carried by 30 points last November. We should be popping champagne, right? Well, hold the bubbly, because the margins tell a different story, and it's got me worried sick about what's coming down the pike.

Here's the kicker: both Patronis and Fine underperformed compared to Trump's November numbers and the previous incumbents' 2024 hauls. Patronis lagged behind Gaetz's 66% from last year, pulling in just 57%, while Fine's 58% was a far cry from Waltz's 66%, a drop of nearly 10 points in some counties. Democrats Gay Valimont and Josh Weil didn't win, but they moved the needle leftward by double digits in these deep-red strongholds, despite being outspent. What's going on here? Trump is still a rock star in Florida after he won the state by a landslide in 2024, but these special election results suggest his voters aren't showing up for down-ballot races with the same gusto. It's a trend for President Trump that's had me grinding my teeth for years.

This isn't about Trump losing his touch; it's about the GOP failing to harness his energy when he's not on the ticket. Fine had Trump's blessing and still barely scraped by against a teacher who raised $9.5 million in a last-minute blitz; which is unheard of and exceptionally wasteful in a district this red. Patronis had the advantage of a Trump-friendly electorate, yet he couldn't match Gaetz's dominance. We've got to ask ourselves: are we relying too much on Trump's name instead of building a bench that can stand on its own? These wins feel hollow when you realize we're bleeding support in places we should own, and it's a red flag for what might happen in Virginia and beyond.

Trump's Popularity Problem: A Historical Headache

Let's talk history, because this isn't the first time Trump's popularity hasn't translated into down-ballot gold. Back in 2018, the mid-terms were a bloodbath and, as a result, Democrats flipped 41 House seats and took the majority, even as Trump was riding high after his 2016 win. Sure, he wasn't on the ballot, but his endorsed candidates got clobbered, and we lost ground in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan that he'd carried two years earlier. It was a frustrating mess then, and it's déjà vu now with Wisconsin and Florida showing cracks in the armor, and we can't rule out Ron Desantis' role in the win. We also can't keep pretending this isn't a pattern.

Fast forward to 2021, and the Georgia Senate special elections were another kick in the teeth. Trump had just lost the state to Biden by a hair, but his base was fired up... until they weren't. His endorsed candidates, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, went down in flames against Warnock and Ossoff, handing the Senate to Chuck Schumer on a silver platter. Trump's rallies couldn't save them, and voter turnout tanked when it mattered most. Then there's 2022: Trump-backed hopefuls like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia flopped, despite Trump's full-throated support, while Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp crushed it without leaning on him. It's infuriating! Trump's quick to remind us that he's a winner, but his magic doesn't always rub off and his coat tails are far too short.

Now, with Wisconsin's court loss and Florida's shaky wins, I'm staring down 2025 and 2026 with a pit in my stomach. Virginia's state elections this November could be a disaster if Trump's popularity doesn't carry our candidates. Governor Glenn Youngkin is term-limited and the Democrats are hungry to flip the governorship. And that's just one state. We need to worry about the 2026 mid-terms, too. If this trend holds, we're looking at a repeat of 2018, with Speaker Mike Johnson's razor-thin majority evaporating. Trump is still our guy. There's no doubt that the President is the heart of this movement, but we can't keep losing these off-year fights. It's time to rethink how we leverage his star power before it's too late.

J.D. Vance: The Answer to Our Mid-Term Woes

Here's my recommendation for the GOP: the Trump administration needs to unleash J.D. Vance as our campaigner-in-chief, starting now. Vance, our Vice President, has the grit, the smarts, the sharp tongue, and the Trump seal of approval. Vance is the perfect guy to hit the road and rally the base for 2025 and 2026. Vance should be sent out to Virginia this fall; it's a battleground we can't afford to lose and it's right next to D.C., so Vance can continue his responsibilities in the Administration. It's a chance for Vance to flex his muscle close to the swamp. I'm fired up just thinking about it: Vance barnstorming the Old Dominion, firing up conservatives, and showing the GOP how to win without banking solely on Trump's name.

After Virginia, picture this: Vance crisscrossing the country in 2026, stumping for every House and Senate candidate in a tough race or in a battle ground state, building a network of loyalists from coast to coast. He's young, he's got that Rust Belt cred from Ohio, and he's already proven he can connect with the working-class voters who love Trump. Unlike some of our past picks, he's not a flash-in-the-pan celebrity (like Sarah Palin). Vance is a serious conservative who can articulate the conservative cause and carry Trump's torch without the baggage that's tripped up others. We need him out there, shaking hands, cutting ads, and reminding folks why they voted for Trump in the first place. It's not just about winning seats; it's about setting Vance up to lock down the 2028 GOP nomination early and keep movement roaring.

I'm not giving up on Trump. He's the most transformative thing to happen to the GOP in decades, and his November 2024 comeback was a masterpiece that will be written about for centuries. But we've got to face facts: Donald Trump's popularity isn't a golden ticket for every race, and we're bleeding in the mid-terms and specials because of it. Vance is our best bet to bridge that gap, turning Trump's energy into a machine that wins year-round, not just every four years. Let's get him on the campaign trail, starting in Virginia, and watch him build the connections to carry Trump's legacy forward without the mid-term hangovers that keep breaking our hearts.