Although the first Presidential Debate in August didn't do much to move the national opinion polls against Donald Trump among Republicans, the debate followed by the subsequent campaigning by all of the candidates except Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire seem to be having some effect.

According to a CBS News/YouGov survey of Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire, more Republicans have decided to find someone else to vote for than are totally committed to voting for Donald Trump. In Iowa, a whopping 79% of Republican voters are either open to voting for someone other than Trump or are committed to voting for someone other than Trump. Likewise, in the Live Free or Die State of New Hampshire, 77% either committed to voting against Trump (34%) or open to voting for Trump or another candidate (43%).

While Trump still has commanding leads in the polls if the Caucuses or Primary were held today, it's an encouraging sign that the overwhelming majority of Republicans at least want alternatives and the Cult of Trump isn't as committed as perhaps we were led to believe. The other encouraging thing about this is that Iowa Republicans and New Hampshire Republicans are notoriously different. While New Hampshire Republicans tend to lean Libertarian and love their practical east coast candidates who avoid social issues, Iowa Republicans tend to to be more Christian Conservative, and given how Donald Trump had pulled the wool over the eyes of a great many Evangelical voters (usually with the help of morally bankrupt Evangelical leaders), I couldn't be happier that (at least in Iowa under the leadership of Bob Vander Plaats) a lot of these Republicans are questioning the personal behavior of Donald Trump and considering the weight of their own souls in the process.

If Trump manages to lose the 2024 Iowa Caucuses AND the 2024 New Hampshire Primary, especially if he loses them to the same candidate, there may be reason to hope that Trump can be defeated in the Republican Primary. The concern then becomes an independent candidacy. However, with a federal judge declaring Trump is guilty of fraud (granted, without a trial or jury) and ordering a large part of his business disbanded, there's a chance Donald Trump may not have the financial or legal resources necessary to run the extravagant campaign he wants. Trump's finances have remained notoriously elusive over the years and what impact the New York judge's ruling will have on him in the grand scheme of things.

Speculation and paths to victory aside for now, the recent polling is at least encouraging for those of us hoping the Republican Party can rediscover its conservative soul and doesn't succumb to a right-wing cult of personality.