On March 7, 2025, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk delivered a striking speech to the Polish Parliament, outlining an ambitious and urgent plan to bolster Poland's military capabilities. With geopolitical tensions simmering in Eastern Europe, Tusk emphasized the need for Poland to dramatically increase its defense spending and even explore the acquisition of nuclear weapons. This address comes at a pivotal moment, as uncertainties surrounding U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump and Russia's ongoing aggression cast a shadow over the region. Tusk's words signal a shift in Poland's strategic posture—one that echoes historical lessons, including Ukraine's fateful decision to surrender its nuclear arsenal decades ago.

A Race for Security

Tusk's speech was blunt and resolute. "Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons," he declared, framing the effort as "a serious race—a race for security, not for war." Already a top NATO spender, with defense expenditures at 4.7% of its GDP, Poland is no stranger to prioritizing its military. Yet Tusk called for pushing this figure to 5%, aligning with rhetoric from Trump, who has long pressed NATO allies to shoulder more of the defense burden. The Prime Minister also announced plans to expand Poland's military to 500,000 personnel, including reservists, through mandatory training for all adult males by year's end—a move that would more than double its current force of roughly 200,000.

But the most eyebrow-raising element of Tusk's address was his openness to nuclear weapons. While stopping short of explicitly committing to an independent Polish nuclear arsenal, he hinted at exploring options, including "serious talks" with France about extending its nuclear umbrella to Poland and potentially other European nations. This proposal challenges Poland's obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which bars signatories like Poland from developing nuclear weapons. However, Tusk's remarks suggest a willingness to rethink long-standing norms in light of today's threats.

The Ukraine Precedent: A Cautionary Tale

Tusk's nuclear musings carry a deeper historical resonance, particularly when viewed through the lens of Ukraine's experience. After the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, Ukraine inherited the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal—a legacy of its time under Soviet control. In 1994, under the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine agreed to relinquish these weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia, with France later affirming similar commitments. The deal promised respect for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, assurances that seemed ironclad at the time.

Fast forward to 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and fueled conflict in eastern Ukraine, followed by its full-scale invasion in 2022. The Budapest Memorandum proved toothless; the security guarantees failed to deter Moscow's aggression. Tusk alluded to this betrayal in his speech, noting Ukraine's current plight—fighting a Russian force of 1.3 million with an army of 800,000—as a stark reminder of what happens when a nation surrenders its ultimate deterrent. "Poland is a frontline state," he has said in prior remarks, and his push for nuclear options reflects a determination not to repeat Ukraine's mistake.

A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The timing of Tusk's speech is no coincidence. The election of Donald Trump has injected uncertainty into transatlantic relations, with his administration signaling a potential retreat from traditional U.S. commitments in Europe. Trump's criticism of NATO allies' spending, coupled with his reluctance to deploy U.S. troops for Ukraine's defense, has left Poland and other Eastern European nations reassessing their reliance on American protection. Meanwhile, Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on, with no end in sight, and Poland's eastern border—also NATO's frontier—feels increasingly vulnerable.

Tusk's call for a nuclear-capable Poland is also a nod to Europe's need for greater self-reliance. He has engaged in discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country, alongside the United Kingdom, holds Europe's only nuclear arsenals. Extending France's nuclear umbrella could provide a collective deterrent, strengthening European security without violating the NPT outright. Yet such a move would require deft diplomacy and a unified European will—qualities often in short supply.

A Controversial Path Forward

Tusk's proposals are not without controversy. Pursuing nuclear capabilities, even indirectly, risks alienating allies and escalating tensions with Russia, which has condemned his rhetoric as "militaristic." Domestically, the plan to train every adult male and boost defense spending to 5% of GDP could strain Poland's economy and spark debate over resource allocation. Moreover, withdrawing from treaties banning anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions, as Tusk suggested, would defy international norms and invite criticism.

Yet for Tusk, the stakes justify bold action. "Russia will be helpless against a united Europe," he asserted, urging the continent to shed its "lack of will" and face the threat head-on. His speech is a clarion call—not just for Poland, but for Europe—to redefine its security architecture in an era of uncertainty.

Conclusion: Lessons from the Past, Eyes on the Future

Donald Tusk's address to Parliament marks a turning point for Poland, reflecting both its historical scars and its resolve to shape its destiny. The ghost of Ukraine's denuclearization looms large, a reminder that security guarantees can ring hollow without the means to enforce them. As Poland charts this ambitious course, it challenges Europe to confront its vulnerabilities and rethink its defenses. Whether Tusk's vision leads to a nuclear-armed Poland or a stronger, more unified European deterrent, one thing is clear: the race for security has begun, and Poland intends to lead the charge.