What Pope Francis ACTUALLY Said

In what can only be described as another facepalm moment for Pope Francis... well, you can read his words for yourself:

"I think that the strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates."

Today, for example, in the war in Ukraine, there are many that want to be mediators, no? Turkey for example. Do not be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse."

Here's the thing: in the west, the White Flag has come to symbolize "giving up" and "surrendering." However, traditionally, the white flag only means, "Don't shoot! I'm coming to negotiate." The problem is that in practice most of the time, that means, "I'm coming to negotiate our surrender." As a result, headlines around the world are suggesting that Pope Francis has suggested that Ukraine surrender to Russia. However, if you read the full context of the translation of the interview, it's obvious that Pope Francis merely meant that Ukraine should accept Russia's attempts to broker a ceasefire and begin peace talks to end the war.

Why Pope Francis is Right

Thanks to Slow Joe Biden, Ukraine has only been a testing ground for last generation combat platforms directly against the Russian military to test their combat capabilities. The Biden Administration has only given Ukraine enough weapons and resources to keep them in the fight, not enough to repel Russia back to Russian lands. As I stated in my October 2023 assessment of the War in Ukraine, without the full material support of the United State or our NATO allies, Ukraine simply cannot hope for anything more than a continued stalemate. It's been clear for over a year at this point that Joe Biden and the NATO alliance are not willing to give Ukraine what it needs to win the war; which means that Ukraine will eventually lose the war or be left with no choice to pursue peace when western resolve to support Ukraine finally collapses; which is already slowly happening.

As it is, Ukraine has already been devastated. As mentioned in a KTracy.com News update on November 2, 2023; the average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 43 years old. This means nearly an entire generation of Ukrainian men has been killed off or has fled into exile to avoid fighting; and may not return for fear of reprisal or just the overwhelming shame for dodging his duty. The socioeconomic damage to Ukraine is already beyond severe. The longer the war continues, the younger members of the Ukrainian military on the front lines will continue to be killed and the average age of a Ukrainian warrior will continue to increase past a point where orders can be consistently followed without question and the combat readiness of the soldiers on the front line will be adequate to even be capable of their orders. Without a sudden influx of state of the art American weaponry and possibly NATO military support on the ground in Ukraine, there is no chance that Ukraine will force Russia to retreat on the battlefield.

This may sound defeatist since most of the news we hear about the War in Ukraine is about the ineptitude of the Russian military and the declining health of and respect for Vladimir Putin. However, as stated earlier on KTracy.com, intelligence assessments about Vladimir Putin and the Russian military have been worth little more than colorful propaganda cartoons produced by British intelligence agencies, or at least some yellow journalism by notoriously flamboyant British journalists with the help of "anonymous sources."

That's not to say the Russian military is not inept, but it does grossly outnumber and overpower the Ukrainian side. Foreign aid is all that's stopping Moscow from advancing further into Ukraine more than it already has this year.

Unless Ukraine has some trick up its sleeve that will turn the tide of the war (like disabling all of Russia's landmines) overnight or an Iron Dome of their own to protect Ukrainian troops from Russian missile and rocket fire, they need to pursue a ceasefire and negotiations for the sake of their own people and the future what's left of the country.

What Terms Ukraine Should Seek

1. NATO MEMBERSHIP
   This CANNOT be allowed to happen again. The only way to stop Russia from invading Ukraine again is for Ukraine to earn NATO membership. This means NATO members must be onboard with adding Ukraine before peace can finally be achieved.
2. MINE REMOVAL
   Russia has planted millions of mines across southern and eastern Ukraine as well as the Black Sea. The Russian military must disclose the location of all known minefields that will be in Ukrainian territory and pay for the removal of those mines or assist in their removal.
3. SHIPPING RIGHTS
   Russia will undoubtedly control an enormous shoreline in the Black Sea after the war. Ukraine (and the world) needs a committment from Russia and NATO (who will enforce the agreement) that shipping rights in the Black Sea and in particular in the triangle connecting Odesa and Mykolaiv to the port cities of Georgia and Bosporus (the Istanbul Strait), or the Istambul Straight. Russia absolutely will throw a fit about this, but Ukrainian and Georgian shipping lanes are far too important to leave unprotected to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
4. RETURN OF ALL KIDNAPPED CITIZENS AND POWs
   The Russian Army kidnapped thousands of Ukrainian citizens, including women and children, during the initial invasion. These Ukrainians absolutely must be returned along with all Prisoners of War.
5. FUNDING TO RESTORE DAMAGED & DESTROYED NON-MILITARY SITES The United Nations should be invited to Ukraine to investigate and compile a list of all buildings that were damaged or destroyed that did not have a valid military value at the time of the attack. Although these are war crimes, Ukraine should settle for financial restitution from Russia in an amount derived by a multi-national UN mediator panel in order to rebuild these buildings; putting an emphasis on civilian housing projects and historic and cultural sites.

There may of course be other terms, but I would argue these are the core elements that must be a part of any peace treaty with Russia. As it is, Russia is going to have a very difficult time agreeing to more NATO involvement in the Black Sea and along their border in Ukraine. The longer the war goes on and the more western resolve weakens, the more difficult it will be for negotiators to force Russia to agree to these terms and the less they'll get out of Russia for lower priority terms.

I don't think Ukraine has any tricks up its sleeve and without vastly increased support from the White House and NATO members, they need to start winding down this war.

My Analogy

When I was a kid and I wanted to annoy my younger and much smaller sister, I would wait until mom and dad were gone and go in her room or knock over her toys in the playroom. Of course, she would try to fight back, but all I would have to do was hold my hand out and grab the top of her head. She could swing her arms and kick like crazy, but she was never going to beat me up. My sister's vain struggle would stop me from knocking over more of her toys, but it also stopped her from playing with them, too. Unfortunately, it also stopped me from doing anything else. So, my sister's only hope was that I would get bored or our parents would come home.

In this analogy, I was Russia. My sister was Ukraine. Our parents were NATO. Vladimir Putin might get bored with the War in Ukraine, but he's not going to get so bored that he gives up. Furthermore, his generals and political lackies are all on the same page as Putin with regards to the war. If Vladimir Putin's health is as bad as suggested, the war is going to continue. Unfortunately for Ukraine, NATO is not coming to the rescue. The best thing for them to do is negotiate for peace now, join NATO, and know they will never have to fight the Russian military alone again.