Kevin Tracy
From the Desk of
Kevin Tracy

2024-01-16

New Hampshire Primary is the Last Chance to Stop Donald Trump

Donald Trump running for President

Nikki Haley really needed to defeat Ron DeSantis for second place in Iowa in order to finish off his campaign and unite the anti-Trump vote behind her. As stated back in September here on KTracy.com, Nikki Haley simply was not pro-life enough for Iowa, and she was punished for that.

Even though she was up on Ron DeSantis in the polls, there was another small surprise in Iowa Caucus history, and Bob Vander Plaats' endorsement likely delivered much needed life support for the DeSantis campaign. Realistically, Ron DeSantis and his SuperPAC spent a fortune in Iowa and, because he didn't win the state, his campaign is over. Iowa was his only chance to win a state. If he won, he could have carried that momentum to South Carolina and Florida. Second place after going all in on Iowa is a loss for Team DeSantis. However, as he said in his post-Iowa speech, he punched a ticket take what is now nothing more than a vanity project campaign to New Hampshire. Although DeSantis will finish 3rd in New Hampshire, he will split the anti-Trump vote with Nikki Haley and likely make her ability to defeat Trump in the state nearly if not totally impossible. After losing Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada; DeSantis won't have any momentum or ground game in South Carolina. DeSantis has no pathway to victory.

Nikki Haley DOES have a pathway to victory. However, she absolutely MUST win New Hampshire! Anything less than a Haley victory in New Hampshire will doom her in her home state of North Carolina.

The only reason to stay in this race (for either candidate) after a Trump victory in New Hampshire is that Donald Trump is damn near 80 years old and not in the best health. If Trump's health fails, Haley and DeSantis can duke it out then. However, this primary campaign is almost over after just the first night of voting.

If Nikki Haley loses New Hampshire, KTracy.com will be supporting Donald Trump.