The 2024 Iowa Caucuses are right around the corner! For me, this is always the most exciting contest of any primary season, and not just because Iowa is the first time we get real numbers and not just polling data! In fact, Iowa Caucus Night is typically my most favorite night of political festivities. First of all, Caucuses are AWESOME and woefully underused in our Democracy. Second, while we get elections just about every year in the United States between municipal, Virginia, midterm, and Presidential election years; the Iowa Caucuses happen only once every four years. Even then, it's even more rare that your political party will be participating in the Iowa Caucuses. The last GOP Caucuses were eight years ago! This is a special night for a political junkie like myself!

The Iowa Caucuses are Notoriously Unpredictable

In 1996, Kansas Senator Bob Dole was the obvious favorite to win the Republican nomination. When it came time for the Iowa Caucuses on February 12th of that year, Bob Dole did manage to win. However, a former White House Communications Director under Ronald Reagan from 1985 to 1987 named Pat Buchanan shocked the country by earning an extremely strong second place finish. While Bob Dole managed to capture 26.3%, Buchanan managed 23.3%. Buchanan's strong showing undermined the illusion of invulnerability surrounding Bob Dole. This caused Buchanan to skyrocket in Primary Polls and the underdog managed to actually win the New Hampshire Primary a few days later. After losing the earlier Alaska and Louisiana contests, and then Iowa, Bob Dole's campaign was in serious trouble, leading Steve Forbes to win the next two contests in Delaware and Arizona. Eventually, Bob Dole managed to right the ship of his campaign, but not before a ton of excitement.

In 2000, Vice President Al Gore (despite his lack of a personality in this race) was in a dead heat with New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. In the leadup to the Caucuses, the Des Moines Register gave a shocking endorsement to Senator Bradley, causing the polls to narrow considerably. On the eve of the Caucuses, the separation between the candidates was merely 2%. However, Al Gore managed to score a devastating landslide victory on Caucus night, winning 62.85% vs 36.60%. The enormous margin of victory likely salvaged the considerably closer New Hampshire Primary for Vice President Gore, and led to Gore sweeping the 2000 Primary Contests.

In 2004, Vermont Governor Howard Dean was the front runner for the entire primary campaign leading to the Iowa Caucuses. Yet, despite this, he inexplicably finished in a distant 3rd place behind both John Kerry and John Edwards, who came out of absolutely nowhere to dominate the Iowa Caucuses. This led Kerry to win New Hampshire and eventually secure the nomination. After the Caucuses, Howard Dean let loose the politically infamous Dean Scream.

In 2008, we got the benefit of a double surprise. Mike Huckabee was in a dead heat with the better-funded, better organized Mitt Romney. Likewise, Barack Obama was trying to upset the heavy favorite Hillary Clinton. What shocked the political world were the margins of victory. Despite the polls showing statistical ties, Mike Huckabee managed to win a landslide margin of victory of 9.2%. Obama meanwhile won with a margin of victory of 7.8%, despite one poll showing Clinton up by 9% just before the Caucuses.

In 2012, with Mike Huckabee deciding not to run, Mitt Romney was the juggernaut that everyone was competing to stop. Yet, just like John Kerry and John Edwards in the 2004 Democratic contest, Rick Santorum came from absolutely nowhere with the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats. At first, Iowa declared that Mitt Romney had won. It wasn't until a couple weeks later that it was announced Rick Santorum actually won the contest, but it was a little too late to make a political difference and stop Mitt Romney.

In 2016, Donald Trump was favorited to win the Iowa Caucuses in a landslide. However, Bob Vander Plaats struck again by endorsing Texas Senator Ted Cruz. This endorsement carried Cruz to a surprise victory over Donald Trump that at least made the 2016 Primary interesting. Unfortunately, by Bob Vander Plaats not endorsing Marco Rubio, it pretty much ensured Trump could not be stopped. We're still living with the consequences of his political folly today.

In 2020, the Democrats had a plethora of popular choices for President, including former Vice President Joe Biden and Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren; who were leading in the polls going into the Iowa Caucuses. However, victory that night had somehow fallen to the former mayor of South Bend, Pete Buttigieg. Truthfully, the way Democrats handle their primary is confusing to me. Bernie Sanders actually won the popular vote, but somehow Buttigieg managed to win the most delegates from the state. Joe Biden meanwhile got KILLED in Iowa and it almost ended his Presidential campaign.

Every election cycle for the last 30 years has had a great and exciting headline coming out of the Iowa Caucuses. For what it's worth, in 1992, Senator Tom Harkin (Iowa) destroyed the competition in the Iowa Caucuses; which was totally expected and completely uneventful. Harkin won with 76.55% of the vote with eventual nominee and President Bill Clinton winning just 2.81% of the vote.