What happened?

On October 18th, a massive explosion ripped through the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza. Initially, it was reported that it was an air strike by the Israeli Defense Forces; however, knowing the leftist media is eager to turn this war against Israel, I decided to hold off on writing a piece about the inevitable mishap and HAMAS' likely equal responsibility in the attack by likely keeping rockets and ammunition stored somewhere in the hospital. More facts needed to be released before I could say anything definitively.

Not unexpectedly, soon afterwards, Israel and HAMAS were pointing the finger at each other. Some defenders of Israel at first said it was a terrorist attack inside of Gaza to discredit them. HAMAS said, "Nuh-uhh!" As time went on, the Israeli story got a bit more complex, claiming it was likely a HAMAS rocket that misfired, triggering a larger explosion. HAMAS, in response, once again insisted that Israel did it.

The Blame Game: Middle East Edition

Earlier this week, US intelligence services analyzed the footage and audio recordings of the attack, performed a battle damage assessment, and presumably used a variety of IMINT and SIGINT sources to conclude that, indeed, Israel was not responsible for the destruction of the hospital. Still, with President Joe Biden shilling for Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu (likely in order to drive a wedge between evangelical voters and Donald Trump, who has supported HAMAS because of a personal gripe with Netanyahu); and because I know how corrupt this administration is and have lost a lot of faith in the upper ranks of our intelligence agencies; the US intelligence assessment wasn't enough to make me write this piece.

However, when I stumbled on an Al Jazeera (of all sources) article pointing out that French intelligence is now agreeing with the Israeli position and American intelligence assessment, I was comfortable enough to finally comment.

Indeed, it sounds like HAMAS was keeping rockets and other weapons at the hospital, knowing the Israeli Defense Forces would have to be insane to blow up a hospital treating hundreds of wounded men, women, and children. This is a common tactic by HAMAS. They use the civilians of Gaza as human meat shields to protect their military leaders, weapons, and other assets, knowing the Israelis will generally value life enough not to hit such targets, regardless of how large the cache may be or how high ranking the target is.

It sounds like HAMAS was either attempting to fire a rocket from the hospital or moving an explosive of some kind around in the hospital when a horrible accident happened, setting off the massive explosion of the rockets' explosive warheads and all of the fuel designed to power the rockets' haphazard and unguided flight.

It's quite possible that HAMAS honestly thought this was an Israeli attack. They knew they had a legitimate military target hidden in the hospital and Israel has been pretty aggressive in their air campaign to date. However, regardless of what HAMAS did know and when, they were always going to blame this on Israel. Just like I initially suspected Israel was lying about this not being their air strike to avoid blame and keep international pressure on HAMAS; HAMAS likewise wants to turn international opinion against Israel and will tell any lie to do that. Welcome to the fog of war.

Impact on the War

It's been two weeks since HAMAS started this war with Israel with a massive barrage of rockets and a horrific ground invasion that left ordinary civilians of Israel and from around the world maimed, murdered, beheaded, raped, and kidnapped. Since then, Israel has launched a siege and blockade of the Gaza Strip, turning off the water and electricity and blocking the transportation of medical supplies and the weapons that always seem to be smuggled with them. However, the world is still waiting for the IDF to put boots on the ground in order to re-occupy Gaza and oust HAMAS.

What impact will the hospital's destruction have on the war?

Well, it may have already happened. By launching a massive blockade, Israel is looking to break the fighting spirit of Gaza by denying basic human necessities. Without food, water, or electricity, the ability of HAMAS to find willing partners in Gaza City is going to be impaired. However, if HAMAS succeeds in blaming the hospital bombing on Israel inside the fence, it's likely to rally community support in Gaza. That alone may have caused Israel to decide to delay the counter-invasion of Gaza until things die down a bit and the will to resist is overcome by hunger and thirst. War is brutal.

The other consideration is that Israel is looking to avoid a long war. They need to block Gaza's will to fight, but they need to stay ready to defend themselves against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and now Yemen. If they're attacked by these international enemies while in Gaza, Israel will be caught with their pants down. That's why the United States intercepting Iranian cruise missiles and drones from Yemen heading to Israel was such an important demonstration of support to Israel. It sends the message to foreign adversaries to Israel that if they get involved, they'll be tangling with the United States military; which doesn't end well for leaders of such movements and countries. Israel will want the Muslim world to believe, or at least have reasonable doubt, that Israel didn't destroy that hospital. If they suspect HAMAS' mishandling of explosives actually triggered the blast, they're a little less likely to get involved. However, Israel needs time for that message to reach these countries and be disseminated. That's why it was so important for not just American but especially French intelligence to back up the Israeli position.

While the blockade is having its intended effect inside Gaza; the longer it drags on, the more international opinion is going to turn against Israel. The more international opinion turns against Israel, the less supportive Joe Biden is likely to be. Without American support, Israel won't be able to enter Gaza without jeopardizing their own national security.

Long story short: there's a chance this deadly and embarrassing mishap by HAMAS might actually save them from the righteous wrath of the Israeli Defense Forces.

As usual though, HAMAS will make sure it's the civilians of Gaza who will continue to pay the price.