How We Got Here

As a Republican for the past 21 years, I think it's safe for me to say the Republican Party is in the middle of a suicidal civil war. While Donald Trump is clearly the cause of it, the GOP has managed to stick together when it mattered the most. Since Donald Trump first appeared on the scene, there was a cold civil war in the GOP. Florida Representative Matt Gaetz fired the first shot to make this a hot civil war when he triggered a vote leading to the GOP removing Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. This wasn't unexpected. After Republicans failed to prevent a costly government shutdown, McCarthy worked with Democrats to pass a temporary funding bill. Blocking the temporary funding bill was not in the best interest of the people of the United States. Although you would think that a government shutdown would save money, it actually costs more as nothing gets done and every government worker receives backpay for their weeks or months long vacation. While conservative Republicans should have followed McCarthy's lead and supported it, they put personal politics ahead of the good of the country. By working with Democrats, a hardcore contingency of Trump supporters led by Matt Gaetz were able to seize upon the distaste for McCarthy among conservatives who wanted to undermine Biden and felt like he gave Biden and the DNC a gift. Speaker McCarthy was ousted, but with no end in mind.

Ohio Representative Jim Jordan was actually a good choice for Speaker. He supports Trump; which was important to the small Caucus of Trump's Cult of Personality and a huge number of Republicans fearful of crossing him. He has a good head on his shoulders and knows how to whip votes; which makes him a good pick for moderate Republicans just looking for basic order. However, just like there is a small Caucus of Trump's Cult of Personality, there is also a small Caucus of Trump Haters in the Republican Party who despise what the GOP is becoming in Trump's shadow. The latter is furious at Matt Gaetz and was determined to punish him and any pro-Trump Republican who puts his or her name forward for Speaker of the House. Jim Jordan would have made a good Speaker; but just like Matt Gaetz shot the Republican Party in the foot, these Trump Haters took the nomination of Jim Jordan as an opportunity to shoot the party in the opposite foot.

What They Don't See: Republicans Are Shooting Themselves!

I used to be more militant in my views on Republicans In Name Only (RINOs). Now, as long as the Republican is generally Pro-Life, Pro-Marriage, and Pro-National Defense; I'll support them without much question. Things are so politically violent right now though that any deviation from the exact agenda of a subgroup of Republicans causes them to be treated like members of a different party. What they don't see is that the GOP is meant to be a coalition of different groups that make a functioning political party. Fiscal conservatives are supposed to be supportive of Christian conservatives by voting for the pro-life and pro-marriage agenda. Christian conservatives are supposed to be supportive of the Libertarian conservatives by not asking for government programs to help the poor (and encouraging communities to let churches do this traditional work). Libertarian conservatives are supposed to support national security conservatives by not undermining every defense spending bill. National security conservatives are supposed to support fiscal conservatives by keeping their requests for defense funding responsible.

When Republicans begin excluding and attacking one another, the party stops functioning as a party and everything begins falling apart.

The Tragically Blurred Front Lines of the Republican Civil War

Most recently, we had a war brewing between excessively combatant libertarians and literally everybody else in the Republican Party. They got annihilated in 2012 because they overstepped their bounds and made people really uncomfortable with ridiculous conspiracy theories and views antithetical to the majority of the Republican Party. Today, the challenge is not ideological and it's creating a very unique challenge.

Trump Die-Hards and Trump Haters each overlap the ideological lines that normally divide the Republican Party. It's still shocking to many that evangelical conservatives rally to a man as hedonistically depraved as Donald Trump and those he surrounded himself with. Likewise, it's shocking to me that there are so many Republicans who hate Donald Trump and can truly blind themselves to the incredible job he did as the leader of the Executive Branch of government.

Trump has become so divisive that he, and whether you support him or hate him, is becoming the litmus test rather than any particular issue. Words cannot describe how dangerous this situation is for Republicans. And while I think conservatism will survive Donald Trump and his cult of personality, the Republican Party is looking like it's going to have a much more difficult time of it.

What's most scary about this situation is that the majority of Republicans in Congress don't want to be a part of this. They just want a Republican Speaker of the House so they can get on with business. The problem is that these Republicans aren't willing or able to speak up. They fear the pro-Trump voters in their Congressional districts will revolt against them if they even appear to cross Trump and his supporters in Congress; but they also know that Donald Trump makes life damn near impossible as a Republican with his unnecessarily rude, boorish behavior. As a result, they stay on the sidelines and let two very small minorities of Republicans tear apart the party. It's obvious the next Speaker of the House will have to come from the ranks of these moderate Republicans who just want to move on from Trump without outright condemning the man, but neither of the two tiny factions seem able to compromise like that.

How Does This End?

I wouldn't be shocked if this continues until Republicans lose the House of Representatives in 2024. In the meantime, there is a temporary Speaker of the House able to fill in from Kevin McCarthy, so important work can still get done, but things are going to start moving really slow until party assignments and possible committee assignments can be renegotiated.

However, I do have some hope that the moderate Republicans would unite behind a candidate like Steve Scalise and everybody would just go along with it. Unfortunately, I think a bi-partisan speaker may be more likely given the hostility both the Trump Haters and Trump Lovers have towards each other.

In the meantime, those of us watching from home are left only to shake our heads at the chaos unfolding in Washington, D.C. caused by Trump's cult of personality and Republicans not supporting each other like they're supposed to in order to make this tapestry of a political party function.