A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has some shocking data that has sent chills down the spine of the most hardened Democrats and Republicans into ecstasy.

The numbers are devastating to Democrats, if true. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer for my fellow Republicans, but ever since Donald Trump's shocking 2016 victory, polling outfits have been trying to change how they do their polling and may be oversampling Republicans and conservatives.

The last polling in Pennsylvania in the 2020 election showed Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden in the state by 1 point. Joe Biden won the state by 1.2%; a 2.2% swing for Biden.

The last two polls in Michigan in 2020 showed Trump winning by 2 and Biden winning by 2. Biden won by nearly 3%. A swing on average of 3%.

In Nevada, Trump was supposed to win by 1 point. Biden won by 2.7%. It's a 3.7% swing.

I suspect the problem is the demonization of Republicans, conservatives, and Trump supporters. When we're further out from an election, people who lean to the right of the political spectrum know that it is culturally inappropriate or at least impolite to hold their political beliefs and are more guarded about them. In the leadup to the 2016 election, Republicans remained afraid to report even in the exit polling.

In 2020, popular culture still demonized Republicans, conservatives, and Trump supporters; but more Republicans were starting to speak out thanks to Donald Trump inspiring the will of the rank and file to fight (especially as the election got closer). As time goes on, fewer and fewer Republicans and increasingly right-leaning moderates are afraid of voicing their opinions. As a result, whatever pollsters are doing to correct for Republicans underreporting may no longer be needed; which is going to result in polls like this from ABC News and the Washington Post where the numbers look downright unrealistic.

Don't get me wrong, the Bidenomics polls are probably accurate. All but the most hardened, brainwashed Democrats are going to say grocery prices are awful. However, I don't think Trump really has more than 50% of Republicans on his primary bandwagon right now. I especially don't think Biden's job approval and the Trump/Biden head-to-head are accurate in this poll; especially considering that in December of 2022, Republicans were aligned against Trump by a 2 to 1 margin.

These numbers are reason to start getting excited about 2024, but don't start celebrating yet. If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.