Likely towards the end of February, Vladimir Putin will authorize a long-awaited Spring Offensive against the forces defending Ukraine. Since the shocking fall counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops left the Russian military utterly humiliated after months of stalled advances and stalemates, the winter has left Russian loyalists fuming and eager for revenge as both sides settled in for the cold Ukranian season.

Late last year, Russia conscripted (drafted) prisoners, the homeless, and men off the street to replenish the ranks of an army that saw unexpectedly massive casualties. Those men have presumably been training all winter and will soon be "ready" to deploy to the front lines. Whether or not they'll actually be equipped with the latest tools of war is another question entirely.

British intelligence has suggested that Russia is having difficulty replacing the destroyed tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) in Ukraine. Of course, British intelligence also predicted that Vladimir Putin's military would not be able to maintain the invasion past May 2022. This and many other predictions of Russian doom that failed to materialize kind of have me feeling like the British intelligence services have been reduced to Ukrainian cheerleaders in the international press.

Like British intelligence, the casualty numbers are extremely unreliable. Russia claims it has lost only 6,000 troops in the war. Ukraine claims somehow to have killed about 120,000. If you listen to western reports of the war, you'd be likely to believe Ukraine's number. However, consider that Russia started the invasion with 190,000 with another 34,000 militiamen. There is absolutely no way that Ukraine has killed 120,000 of the 224,000 warm bodies Russia sent to wage war in Ukraine.

Realistically, the true number of Russian casualties is likely closer to 12,000. Twice as many as reported by the Russians, but only a tenth of those reported by Ukraine; which has been engaging in some intensive propaganda to maintain favor in the west.

12,000 might not seem like a lot, but consider that in twenty years, the total number of Americans killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined was only about 7,000.

My point with the numbers is that, while the Ukrainian military is doing one hell of a job punishing the Russian soldiers, the Russian military is nowhere near as extended as western news outlets make them appear.

With the addition of another 300,000 conscripts heading to Ukraine from throughout Russia, the second year of the war is likely going to begin with a horrendously brutal kick off. The new warriors are scared, angry, and have even less regard for the rules of war than their properly trained counterparts who kicked off the invasion.

Additionally, they likely won't be equipped as well as that wave from last year. This means they'll be using more blunt tools and causing more indiscriminate damage in their attacks. The Spring Offensive in 2022 was Russia's attempt at shock and awe, hoping to frighten the Ukrainian government into fleeing the country and scaring the military into a peaceful surrender. Now, having lost the element of surprise and many of the weapon systems that made their shock and awe campaign possible, Russia is now preparing to just mercilessly beat Ukraine into surrender with the shear amount of savagery, brutality, damage, and death.

Ukraine desperately needed the German-made Polish tanks and every advanced weapon they could possibly get their hands on, not to finish off the Russians, but to try and limit the hell that Russia is about to bring down on them.

The real question is going to be whether it is too little, too late. The American M1 Abrams tank is an impressive machine of war, but with Biden sending only 31 tanks to Ukraine, I can't help but feel like it's merely a symbol meant to appease Germany and the American public who still supports the Ukrainian resistance.

Still, it's more than Britain's 14 Challenger 2 tanks and Poland's 14 Leopard 2 tanks that are being sent. In the face of the coming onslaught, it doesn't seem like enough to WIN the war, just enough to keep it simmering and prolong the suffering.

To end the war, Vladimir Putin needs to accept domestic responsibility for his folly (or at least admit he was defeated by western interference) or Ukraine needs a true military deterrent BEFORE the Russian spring offensive. Neither appear likely to happen before February or March, so blood will continue to be spilled.