2009-10-25
Hamid Karzai: There Is Only One Way Forward for Afghanistan in Election
Up until President Karzai of Afghanistan ruled out a power sharing agreement between himself and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, a lot of people in both Washington and the International Community were hoping for such an outcome to take place. For those of you who think Afghanistan is our enemy in the War on Terrorism, this post is going to confuse the heck out of you.
For those of you who know better, but can't keep up with international news; here's the brief version. The Afghan Constitution says that if no candidate reaches 50% in a Presidential Election, there must be a runoff election. Well, in this year's Presidential Election, President Karzai's men rigged the polls and put Karzai up over 50%. Unfortunately, his men got caught and an independent Afghan Election Commission adjusted the vote... Karzai now has under 49%, meaning the Constitution requires another election.
As you may have guessed, the reason for this Constitutional mandate for a runoff election was due to the history and demographic makeup of Afghanistan. In every election from now until the end of time, there are going to be at least three and probably at least ten Presidential Candidates... some more serious than others. With so many candidates, there is a risk that the man with the most votes might lack the support of the majority of the population. In America when this happens, people get angry and foam at the mouth for a few months and then casually forget about it until the next election cycle. In Afghanistan, they get mad and foam at the mouth... but then they take it one step further by firing mortars and rifles at each other's houses. By having a runoff election, it assures that at least 50% of the Afghan population voted for the incumbent President, making it a lot less likely that the losers of the election are going to try killing the majority of the people who support the President.
The problem right now is that Afghanistan is torn by violence and the Taliban makes hosting an election very difficult and very expensive... holding two elections is twice as difficult and twice as expensive. So in order to avoid the violence that will result in a second election, a lot of people suggested that a power sharing agreement be reached between President Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah. This way, both sides can be quelled into supporting the government and the Taliban lose the opportunity to strike the people participating in the new government.
There are two problems with this. One short term, one long term. The short term problem is that there is absolutely nothing in the Afghan Constitution that would allow for a power sharing arrangement. The long term problem is that, although both candidates support the US presence in Afghanistan, a government with a split executive branch runs the risk of becoming incredibly indecisive and inefficient very quickly.
Realizing this, Karzai has made it clear that there is only one way forward from here.
The Constitutionally mandated runoff election.
We'll see what turnout is like next month, but if the people show up in relatively the same numbers that they have previously, it will signal that the Afghan people are excited enough about their Democracy to expose themselves to the risk of death and mutilation at the hands of brutal terrorists... and that's a sign that we're going to win over there.
